Abstract

Offensive linemen are among the most consequential players in the NFL, yet they

remain among the least represented in quantitative performance analysis. Unlike skill-

position players whose contributions appear in traditional box-score statistics, offensive

linemen generate value through the prevention and avoidance of negative outcomes –

blocked pass rushers, avoided penalties, and sustained rushing lanes – none of which are

captured by conventional metrics. This absence of accessible, objective evaluation has

produced systematic inefficiencies in talent assessment and contract valuation for the

position group.

This study introduces Victories Over Substitution (VOS), a wins-equivalent metric

for NFL offensive linemen constructed from Pro Football Focus (PFF) grading data and

efficiency statistics from the 2024 NFL season. Inspired by baseball’s Wins Above

Replacement (WAR) metric, VOS quantifies an individual linemen’s performance relative to

a replacement-level player, empirically defined as the 20th percentile of the observed

performance distribution, and expresses that surplus in units of wins contributed to their

respective teams. An interactive dashboard developed in Figma makes the pipeline that

constructs this metric transparent and accessible to practitioner audiences. VOS demonstrates

that a wins-equivalent metric for offensive linemen is both constructable and practically

interpretable when performance metrics are appropriately normalized, adjusted for context,

and anchored to a well-defined replacement player baseline value.

Advisor

Pasteur, Drew

Department

Statistical and Data Sciences

Keywords

NFL, Offensive Linemen, VOS, Victories Over Substitution, Football, American Football, Stats, Football Stats, Football Statistics, Statistics

Publication Date

2026

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2026 Michael B. Kennedy