Abstract

This study explores how the aging Baby Boomer generation may shape the U.S.

housing market and how younger generations, especially Millennials, may respond.

I develop a theoretical framework linking retirement, delayed mobility, intergener-

ational wealth transfer, and expected home prices to future housing supply and

demand. Empirically, the study uses IPUMS census and ACS microdata to estimate

logistic regression models of renting and recent residential mobility across gener-

ations, and it uses ARIMA, ETS, and random walk with drift models to forecast

median home values. Among the time-series models, the random walk with drift

best fit log median home value from 2000 to 2015 and projected continued price

growth through 2034. The regression results show that renting declines with age,

income, and household size, while generational differences remain important even

after controlling for those factors. Millennials are more likely to rent at younger

ages than Boomers, but their rental probability falls faster over time, suggesting

eventual convergence in homeownership. At the same time, Boomers are less likely

to move later in life than comparable members of earlier generations, indicating

slower housing turnover. Overall, the findings suggest that the housing effects

of population aging will likely be delayed and uneven: rather than triggering an

immediate and widespread Silver Tsunami, Boomer aging may produce a gradual

release of supply that is absorbed over time as younger households move into

ownership.

Advisor

Liu, Jancy

Second Advisor

Ma, Changzhi

Department

Business Economics; Statistical and Data Sciences

Disciplines

Business

Publication Date

2026

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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