Abstract

Climate change is causing hurricanes to become stronger and more frequent. These storms will continue to pose a threat to the populations along the U.S. Atlantic coastline. These regions are growing significantly in development and population size. Many of these locations are extremely susceptible to storm surge, one such place is Key West, Florida. In this study, I examine the worst-case scenario storm surge the city can experience. Based on historical case studies, I created a hypothetical hurricane named Emilio that includes the meteorological conditions to allow for maximum storm surge potential. I used ArcGIS Pro and publicly available elevation data to simulate flooded areas during storm surge events of different intensities. In all cases, Key West will be almost completely inundated with storm surge. The only area that might avoid inundation is the western portion of the city. Because hurricane Emilo’s upper right quadrant will impact the city, Key West Will also be severely damaged by the winds of a category 5 hurricane. While the western section of the city might not be entirely inundated with storm surge, it will experience 165 mph winds. It is important to understand the impacts Hurricane Emilio could have because it can educate the public on the potential effects of a severe hurricane. Compared to the National Weather Service (NWS), my research uses publicly available information and historical data to create a hypothetical storm surge. The simplified and accessible approach to mapping storm surge can be used by officials that don’t have NWS data to visualize storm surge potential for their residents. My research can lead to better hurricane awareness and new building codes and mitigation techniques, which may save lives in the future.

Advisor

Pollock, Meagen

Department

Geology

Disciplines

Atmospheric Sciences | Geology | Meteorology | Oceanography | Risk Analysis

Publication Date

2025

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2025 Vincent Baioni