Abstract

Conflict is, by nature, cost inefficient and has naturally attracted economists’ devoted attentions. As a part of this discourse, income inequality has been mainly discussed as a critical element of intergroup conflict, but growing literature has suggested that a dynamic change better predicts conflict onset. However, the ‘emotional’ aspect of intergroup conflict has been largely understudied. In this paper, I study how an expected change in power dynamics impacts intergroup conflict onset. I theorize a minority group experiences Status Loss Aversion when they see a minority group’s growth. To test the theory, I construct a global panel dataset from 1992 to 2019 using the Research Front End, Ethnic Power Relations 3.01, and Penn World Table 10.01 datasets. I find the Poisson and logistic regression estimations suggest that a minority group’s growth increases the probability of conflict onset, as aligned with my theory. This paper contributes to illuminating conflict through the lens of the feeling of loss or hate and provides the alternative approach to existing analyses of conflict by creating the bridge between political economy and behavioral economics.

Advisor

Teather-Posadas, Edward

Second Advisor

Kelvey, Robert

Department

Economics; Mathematics

Disciplines

Behavioral Economics | Econometrics | Political Economy

Keywords

Intergroup Conflict, Inequality, Polarization

Publication Date

2023

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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