Abstract

This study examines how demographic change shapes Republican vote swing across nine swing states from 2002 to 2024, using a balanced panel of 9,256 county-year observations and fixed effects regression models estimated with the feols package in R. Drawing on county-level demographic data and individual-level American National Election Studies survey data, the analysis investigates how education, racial composition, income, unemployment, and urbanization relate to electoral change, and whether immigration attitudes amplify these demographic effects. The results reveal that education polarization follows a nonlinear pattern, with a turning point at approximately 58\% bachelor's attainment above which further education gains are associated with Republican rather than Democratic swings, complicating the simple diploma divide narrative in existing literature. Additional results describe a post-2016 change in Hispanic voting patterns and educational alignment. Regional differences are also explored within the swing states to reveal some level of homogeneity in location. The results offer a foundation that connects what demographic patterns appear in county vote swing and why individual-level attitudes and identities create these shifts.

Advisor

Pasteur, Drew

Department

Statistical and Data Sciences

Disciplines

American Politics | Analysis | Applied Statistics | Data Science | Statistical Models

Keywords

political polarization, voting trends, fixed effects regression

Publication Date

2026

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2026 Sidney A. O'Rourke