Abstract

College enrollment in the United States has declined over the past decade, reflecting broader societal and institutional shifts. This study examines what is actually drivingthose changes, focusing on 118 undergraduate institutions across Ohio. Using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), it compares institutional characteristics between 2018 and 2023 to capture a shift from a pre-pandemic baseline to a post-pandemic “new normal.”

The analysis looks at how tuition, financial aid, graduation rates, and overall institutional cost structures relate to enrollment change, with schools grouped by sector. Using exploratory data analysis, ANOVA, and regression models in RStudio, the study tests both individual and combined effects of these factors.

While some patterns follow expectations such as higher graduation rates linking to enrollment growth and higher tuition linking to declines, these relationships are not strong or consistent. Overall, financial and performance metrics explain only a small portion of enrollment change.

Instead, the findings suggest that enrollment is shaped by a much broader mix of influences, including demographics, regional conditions, and institutional strategy. This reinforces the idea that there is no single explanation or solution for declining enrollment, and that understanding these trends requires a more multidimensional approach.

Advisor

Smith, Joseph

Department

Statistical and Data Sciences

Disciplines

Data Science

Publication Date

2026

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2026 Eva P. Wojciechowski