Abstract

This study examines whether U.S. military presence overseas produces positive economic outcomes for the host state and whether favorable public opinion is an intervening variable in that causal relationship. This research draws on deterrence theory, contact theory, and reassurance theory along with economic theories such as expenditure and security theory. These theories assist the argument that while U.S. bases provide deterrence which creates conditions for economic development in the host state. The translation of security benefits into measurable economic growth requires that host populations hold favorable views of the U.S. Without positive public opinion, the mechanisms linking U.S. base and troop presence to economic growth are likely to be inhibited or reversed. To test this hypothesis, this research employs a comparative case study using the Method of Difference framework. Poland and Kuwait are used as case studies as they share a significant U.S. military presence and historical memory of foreign occupation. These cases differ in their economic and political structures as well as their patterns of public opinion. Economic growth is operationalized as GDP per capita change over a twenty-year period surrounding significant U.S. troop deployments, while public opinion is measured by a five-point ordinal scale. The findings of this research partially support the hypothesis and reveal complexities in the causal relationship. In Poland, sustained high levels of approval for the U.S. coincided with positive GDP per capita growth. However, the analysis reveals that Polish public opinion was driven more by threat perception and national memory of occupation than by base presence. In Kuwait, economic oil dependency and an elite-dominated political system made isolation of U.S. base presence’s effect difficult to measure. In this case, this research determined elite-opinion as opposed to mass opinion may be a stronger conditional variable in non-democratic states.

Through this research, five significant findings emerge across cases. First, threat perception is a primary driver of public opinion rather than base presence alone. Second, regime type determines the relevance of mass public opinion versus elite opinion. Next, economic structure can function as a major confounding variable in the causal relationship. Infrastructure development and FDI represent potential causal mechanisms, however they are difficult to isolate. Finally, perceived U.S. political commitment may matter as much as the physical presence of troops in sustaining the conditions necessary for base-related growth.

Advisor

Lantis, Jeffrey

Department

Political Science

Disciplines

International Relations

Keywords

U.S. Military, Economic Growth, Public Opinion

Publication Date

2026

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

Download

Share

COinS
 

© Copyright 2026 Cooper H. Baer