Abstract

This Independent Study analyses the likelihood of ratification of the United States Constitution and the effects of elite level polarization. The United States Constitution has only been amended twenty-seven times over the past two hundred and thirty-seven years, this makes it the longest standing constitution while simultaneously being one of the least amended (“Constitution Day” 2025). In an effort to explain this phenomenon, this study also looks at the role of institutional constraint by comparing the federal process with the state-level amendment process and the corresponding polarization levels. This research is based on two major theoretical foundations. The first is being elite polarization theory; this explains how polarization or ideological divergence at the elite level impedes coalition-building. The second theory referenced heavily in this research is the constitutional rigidity framework; this framework explains how institutional rules have been created to intentionally make the amendment process difficult. This study employs a quantitative research design to assess the relationship between political polarization and the probability of constitutional amendment ratification of the United States. Given the rarity of constitutional amendments, rare-events logistic regression will be used as the primary methodological approach. The United States Constitution will serve as the single case study for the logistic regression. Additionally, descriptive data will be gathered from the state of Georgia constitution and along with polarization data from the state. This data will be compiled in order to draw comparisons between the effect of polarization at the state and federal level. The central finding of this Independent Study is that the level of Congressional polarization has a statistically significant impact on the probability of ratifying a federal amendment. As Congressional polarization increases, even incrementally, the likelihood of polarization decreases.

Advisor

Kim, Sekwen

Department

Political Science

Publication Date

2026

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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