Abstract

In the NFL, teams are forced to make strategic decisions about how to allocate money across players and positions while adhering to the salary cap. This study offers a data-driven perspective on this challenge by modeling the relative importance and return-on-investment of each position. Non-linear optimization is utilized to maximize expected wins by incrementally allocating cap space to positions with the highest marginal benefit. It is concluded that, between 2019 and 2023, the largest cap investments should be directed towards linebackers, the defensive line, and wide receivers. The model suggests a surprisingly low allocation to quarterbacks due to the widespread success of young quarterbacks on rookie contracts during the time-frame being studied. In addition, when investing in expensive star players, teams should prioritize the wide receiver and cornerback positions to improve overall performance. While adhering to the optimal allocation strategy provided some competitive benefits, the most successful teams during this time-frame took advantage of market inefficiencies by signing players that over-performed relative to their pay. The most effective way to do so is through the NFL draft, highlighting the importance of scouting and player development in franchises.

Advisor

Murphy, Jake

Department

Statistical and Data Sciences

Disciplines

Business Analytics | Data Science | Finance and Financial Management | Sports Management | Statistical Models

Keywords

NFL, Salary Cap Management, Positional Value, Optimization

Publication Date

2025

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2025 Max C. Wiley