Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change affects all sectors of the planet’s biogeochemical systems and the disruptions to these global systems, especially concerning the atmosphere and hydrosphere, become more apparent with each passing year. An observed weakening, or slowing, in the circulatory strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been present since the mid-1900s due to increased average ocean temperatures. AMOC weakening solely produces the emergence of the phenomena known as North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH).

The relationship between ocean circulation and atmospheric processes requires intense examination now that major circulatory systems are being affected by modern anthropogenic climate change. This paper examines the intensification and shifting frequencies of climate extremes across the North Atlantic Ocean. This is achieved by identifying distinct pressure patterns using the SOM algorithm, defining CTP appropriate extreme weather conditions, and correlating the occurrence of pressure pattern dependent climate extremes to a climate mode, North Atlantic Ocean (NAO), to contextualize the proposed systemic behavioral trends. Weak positive correlations were found between the NAO and extreme cold and precipitation conditions. The NAO is seen to be in its positive phase when there is higher probability of extreme conditions describing regional air temperatures to be below the 10th percentile for at least five days and precipitation is above the 90th percentile for at least five days. Extremely high air temperature conditions are not correlated strongly with the NAO index and there is no increased probability for any one specific heat related indices to occur. This work provides insight into future climate risks under continued AMOC weakening.

Advisor

Pollock, Meagen

Department

Earth Sciences

Disciplines

Atmospheric Sciences | Climate | Earth Sciences | Oceanography | Probability

Keywords

Synoptic Climatology, Atmospheric Sciences, Oceanography, Probability

Publication Date

2025

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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