Abstract
Each year in American football, highly touted collegiate players are drafted into the NFL via the NFL draft. The NFL draft is an event in which NFL executives and team decision-makers can assess and select players that they think can add value to their organization. However, it is often the case that an exceptional college player who is selected early in the draft and paid a significant amount of money underperforms in the NFL. The player would then likely be considered a "bust". The reason for this drop in playing quality is not solely due to athletic ability or football intelligence though. Each player is subject to random and unique circumstances, which has historically made assessing talent via the NFL draft so difficult for executives leading to "busts" time and time again. Some positions are much more subject to being "busts" and are considered volatile in this study. As such, the least volatile position is deemed to be the running back, who carries the football for as many yards as possible. This study aims to investigate how random factors as well as performance statistics can be used to account for differences in rookie running back quality throughout the NFL draft.
Advisor
Morrison, Jillian
Department
Statistical and Data Sciences
Recommended Citation
Epstein-Petrullo, Shane, "Boom or Bust: An Investigation of Rookie Running Back Performance Through the NFL Draft" (2024). Senior Independent Study Theses. Paper 11039.
https://openworks.wooster.edu/independentstudy/11039
Disciplines
Applied Mathematics | Applied Statistics | Data Science | Mathematics | Statistical Methodology | Statistical Models | Statistical Theory | Statistics and Probability
Keywords
sports analytics, comparative analysis, random effects, fixed effects, mixed models, linear regression, random forest, decision trees, NFL, draft model
Publication Date
2024
Degree Granted
Bachelor of Arts
Document Type
Senior Independent Study Thesis
© Copyright 2024 Shane Epstein-Petrullo
