This research is modeling the expected number of shots to hole out from anywhere on the golf course. This research could potentially be used to improve one's golf game or see where their game needs work. The author has received permission from the PGA Tour to use ShotLink data and has used this data to help compute the expected number of shot values. While using the model made based on the expected number of shots to hole out, the author has also looked at two very distinct applications of this model. The first involves a driving scenario that takes into account a risk/reward situation that puts an emphasis on choosing to play aggressive or playing conservative. Finally, the second application looks at an approach shot scenario in which multiple golfers of different skill levels are hitting into a green. This scenario then helps determine which target each player should use to get the best possible result based on the expected number of shots.


Pasteur, Drew




Applied Mathematics


expected value, golf

Publication Date


Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis



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