The trade war between China and the US is currently on-going. In the world economy, China and the United States are the most economically impactful countries due to the variety and the volume of products that they export into the global economy. My hypothesis is: the trade war can increase the exports of Chinese high-end technology manufacturing in the world.
However, I find that there is no winner in this trade war. I focus on international tradetheories such as Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage and a partial equilibrium trade model to show the welfare impacts of tariffs. I use an empirical gravity model to test the impact of the US-China trade war (proxied by the tariff rate) on Chinese high-end tech exports using panel data. I control for distance between the countries, China’s GDP, and theChinese trading partners' GDP. In empirical analysis, I determine key factors influencing the export trade flow of Chinese high-tech products to its six main exporting markets namely the United States of America, Singapore, South Korea, India, Vietnam, and Malaysia. Empirically, there is insufficient evidence to support the negative effects of tariffs on Chinese high-tech products.
Global and International Studies
Liu, Ruoqi, "How did the China-US trade war affect Chinese High- Technology Manufacturing industry?" (2021). Senior Independent Study Theses. Paper 9438.
trade war, tariff, China, the United States
Bachelor of Arts
Senior Independent Study Thesis
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