This is a study about the optimal allocation of resources between investments in economic growth and global catastrophic risk reduction. Specifically, I provide an analysis of some of the main philosophical presuppositions involved in tackling this problem and explore relevant tools in mathematical economics. I discuss different ways of conceiving of the value of economic growth. I outline some important concepts for understanding global catastrophic risks and the challenges in modelling such risks. I categorize and clarify philosophical presuppositions that are important to the project. I present a novel argument for why improving the far future may be our moral priority that is based on reductionism about personal identity. I discuss at length the Ramsey approach to optimal allocation of resources. I provide an introduction to continuous Optimal Control Theory, a method for solving problems of dynamic maximization. I then use this method to develop my own model for the optimal investing in economic growth and global catastrophic risk reduction. The aims of this model are to illustrate the results of the philosophical discussions I consider, and to provide a picture of how standard mathematical-economics methodology can be used to tackle my research objective.
Adami Oliboni, Pedro, "On The Relative Long-Term Future Importance of Investments in Economic Growth and Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction" (2020). Senior Independent Study Theses. Paper 8935.
Economics | Mathematics | Philosophy
economic growth, global catastrophic risk, reductionism about personal identity, optimal control theory, optimal growth model, long-term future, effective altruism, global priorities research, prioritization, optimal allocation of resources
Bachelor of Arts
Senior Independent Study Thesis
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