This study investigates the contract cycle production effects of National Basketball Association players and how these effects impact franchise success. Using a robust data set of NBA players over a four year span, I find that that player production, measured by two separate advanced metrics, is impacted significantly by the final year of a player’s contract and the first year after signing a new contract, albeit less robustly. When running a second test with team win percentage as the dependent variable, the final year of a contract and the first year of a new contract for a single player do not seem to be statistically robust impactors of a franchise’s win percentage. These findings illuminate the impact multi-year contracts can have on player production, measured by the most advanced efficiency metrics. I argue that NBA franchises should, at the very least, be aware of these effects and include an array of contractual and operational mechanisms to combat the shirking that exists around a contract cycle.


Histen, Joe


Business Economics


Sports Management

Publication Date


Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis



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