In 2017alone,over 22,000 terror attacks were committed worldwide and many more planned [4]. To combat the development of terror plots and attacks, undercover government agents are sent out to detect and intercept them. The purpose of this research paper is then to redevelop a model that predicts the probability of some number of unknown terror plots and busy undercover agents and to then find the steady state probability of different combinations of these two factors. Additionally, given a variety of parameters that impact the probability of unknown and known terror plots, this research seeks to understand how varying these parameters affect the number of terror plots. In order to redevelop this model, we utilized concepts from both univariate and bivariate distributions in probability; the distributions ultimately used were binomial and Poisson distributions. Then, using the mathematical computing software, MATLAB, a simulation of the distribution was created to understand the long term probabilistic behavior of different combinations. After this, the given parameters were altered and reapplied to the simulation to replicate sensitivity analysis. As a conclusion, bounds were found for each parameter and the simulation and distribution were approved with minimal error.


Pierce, Pamela



Publication Date


Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis



© Copyright 2018 Sabrina S. Tobe