This study evaluates the information containing content of two interest rate spreads and one interest rate for the future of the economy, to offer a partial answer as to the effectiveness of monetary policy. The study attempts to offer an analysis of the capability of the spread between IOER and overnight RRP rates, the spread between the 3-month Commercial Paper and Treasury Bill rates, and the Effective Federal Funds Rate, for predicting five monthly economic indicators. The first half of the thesis explains the theoretical framework of monetary policy implementation both pre and post the financial crisis of 2008 to better understand the Central Bank’s policy instruments. The latter section empirically tests the proposed predictive nature of the three interest rate variables and a derivative of each. The study found that the spread between the 3-month financial instruments is helpful in predicting three of the five economic indicators, while the IOER-RRP spread had little to no predictive capability.
Gould, Kevin H., "An Empirical Analysis of the Predictive Power of Interest Rate Spreads in the Policy Normalization Period" (2018). Senior Independent Study Theses. Paper 8060.
Econometrics | Economic Theory | Finance | Macroeconomics | Public Economics
Bachelor of Arts
Senior Independent Study Thesis
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