Abstract

With hard economic times, presidential administrations lose public support; with good economic times, presidential administrations gain support. My study analyzes whether voters care about the economy based on three economic factors: inflation, unemployment, and disposable income. I hypothesis that voters will use a retrospective voting method over 48 months based on party issue ownership to evaluate the economy. I will measure the impact of economic evaluation on the Democratic Percent of Vote Share. Previous studies on economic factors have analyzed retrospective voting only during the year of the election rather than over the long haul of an entire presidential term. I hypothesize that voters will retrospectively evaluate candidates over the previous four years of the previous president. I conclude that only inflation is a significant factor in determining how voters will allocate their economic vote.

Advisor

Ondercin, Heather

Department

Political Science

Disciplines

American Politics | Economic Policy | Macroeconomics | Models and Methods | Political Economy

Keywords

inflation, unemployment, disposable income, economic voting, issue-ownership, retrospective voting

Publication Date

2018

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2018 Patrick T. Mohorcic