Abstract

Why does the deadlock that has defined China-Taiwan relations for 65 years persist despite periods of extreme tension and change? I use the Model of Punctuated Equilibrium from evolutionary biology as a framework to answer this question. The PE Model is comprised of two parts, positive and negative feedback. A positive feedback mechanism, or punctuation, is a self-reinforcing process in which rapid change occurs as a result of attention-shift and mimicking. A negative feedback cycle, or equilibrium, is a self-correcting mechanism, which equalizes any outside force to create a stable output. According to this model, if China and Taiwan increase their disruptive actions, then the United States will increase its influence to promote stability, resulting in a lower level of conflict. To test my hypothesis, I implement a theory-guided case study. My first case encompasses the positive feedback cycle formed by the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crises. The second case discusses the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis and the 1999 Taiwan Strait Confrontation. The goal of this study is to explore the rise of conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the resultant level of negative feedback that stabilizes the situation until the political deadlock is reinstated.

为什么在这六十五年来,中国和台湾的关系还在弄僵? 我用进化生物学的 Model of Punctuated Equilibrium 来回答这个问题。这 PE Model 由两部分做成:正反馈 和负反馈。这反馈是一个换得快的过程。这个过程要经过注意力转移和模仿。 负反馈 是一个自动教程的机制。 这个机制均衡任何外力来创造一个稳定的输出。按照这个模 型,如果中国和台湾增加他们的破坏性等,美国就会增加他的影响力和提高稳定性, 导致减少他们冲突。 为了测试我的假设我实现了一个理论制造的个案研究。 我的第一 个案例包含了台湾第一和第二次台海危机。 我的第二个案例讨论了第三次台海危机和 1999 年台湾海峡对峙。我的研究目的是来了解台海的冲突和重建台湾和中国的关系。

Advisor

Lantis, Jeffrey

Department

International Relations

Publication Date

2016

Degree Granted

Bachelor of Arts

Document Type

Senior Independent Study Thesis

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© Copyright 2016 Jordan E. Shremshock